Rivers: Why Fubara may fight again!
By Ismail Omipidan
The return of Governor Siminalayi Fubara after the expiration of the six-month emergency rule has been widely applauded by many Nigerians. To avoid any unguarded utterances, the governor, on his return to the state, appeared to tactfully distance himself from his army of supporters who had thronged the Rivers State Government House on Thursday. Instead, he showed up yesterday, and promptly delivered a statewide broadcast to the people of the state.
Before his return, there were concerns over the details of the peace deal that paved the way for his reinstatement. While some argued that he would serve only one term, others insist that the arrangement heavily favours his estranged godfather and current FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike.
Wike was on Politics Today with Seun Okinbaloye on Thursday. He declined to reveal details of the peace deal. But any peace deal whose terms remain shrouded in secrecy cannot, in my view, be regarded as fair or just. I stand to be corrected.
For now, it appears that only Wike, Fubara, and perhaps President Bola Ahmed Tinubu know the exact contents of the peace deal or understanding.
However, as a trained political communication specialist, I find that Fubara’s statewide broadcast offers a glimpse into parts of the agreement. This is particularly evident in paragraph 10 of his speech, where he stated: “To those who have expressed genuine fears, frustrations, and uncertainty over the nature of the peace process, I assure you that your concerns are valid and understood.” In essence, the governor acknowledged that the public’s fears and doubts about the peace deal are not unfounded. By validating these concerns and admitting that he understands them, Fubara tacitly concedes that there are indeed contentious aspects of the arrangement.
The governor was, however, quick to add that “nothing has been irretrievably lost; there remains ample opportunity for necessary adjustments, continued reconciliation, and inclusiveness.” My understanding of these lines are these: One, even if there is a clause for now in that peace deal that would prevent him from seeking a second term, his good behaviour and willingness to play ball, going forward may make change their minds, thereby adjusting the peace deal to allow him seek a second term. Two, certain things that he was not too pleased with could equally be adjusted as time goes by, once he showed genuine reconciliation efforts. And by shunning the crowd on Thursday, the governor appears to be ready for a genuine reconciliation.
For me, the only reason Fubara may be willing to fight again is if, after abiding religiously by the terms of the peace deal without reservations, he is still denied a second-term bid.
Already, he has been stripped of critical levers of power: he has no control over the local governments in the state, he is not in charge of the House of Assembly, and, if the feelers I’m getting are anything to go by, he is unlikely to be in full control of his cabinet either. Having been politically weakened on all fronts, it would be unwise and indeed provocative to further deny him a re-election ticket. In our recent political history, the only governor who was denied a second-term ticket on the basis of non-performance was Chinwoke Mbadinuju of Anambra State under the PDP in 2003. So far, no one can say Fubara hasn’t performed, as such, non performance cannot be adduced as a reason should they decide to strike. My point is, if they do, as being planned, it will be on the basis of politics, a development that may trigger another round of political unrest in the state.
With the benefit of hindsight, Fubara would have already seen the end of Wike’s dominance in Rivers politics, if not for Wike’s current status as a minister, backed firmly by the very man who appointed him.
